The case for increasing the statistical power of eddy covariance ecosystem studies: why, where and how?

ArticleThis is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Eddy covariance (EC) continues to provide invaluable insights into the dynamics of Earth's surface processes. However, despite its many strengths, spatial replication of EC at the ecosystem scale is rare. High equipment costs are likely to be partially responsible. This contributes to the low sampling, and even lower replication, of ecoregions in Africa, Oceania (excluding Australia) and South America. The level of replication matters as it directly affects statistical power. While the ergodicity of turbulence and temporal replication allow an EC tower to provide statistically robust flux estimates for its footprint, these principles do not extend to larger ecosystem scales. Despite the challenge of spatially replicating EC, it is clearly of interest to be able to use EC to provide statistically robust flux estimates for larger areas. We ask: How much spatial replication of EC is required for statistical confidence in our flux estimates of an ecosystem? We provide the reader with tools to estimate the number of EC towers needed to achieve a given statistical power. We show that for a typical ecosystem, around four EC towers are needed to have 95% statistical confidence that the annual flux of an ecosystem is nonzero. Furthermore, if the true flux is small relative to instrument noise and spatial variability, the number of towers needed can rise dramatically. We discuss approaches for improving statistical power and describe one solution: an inexpensive EC system that could help by making spatial replication more affordable. However, we note that diverting limited resources from other key measurements in order to allow spatial replication may not be optimal, and a balance needs to be struck. While individual EC towers are well suited to providing fluxes from the flux footprint, we emphasize that spatial replication is essential for statistically robust fluxes if a wider ecosystem is being studied.Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Numbers: NE/J015644/1, NE/K002619/

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) derived structure-from-motion photogrammetry point clouds for oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) canopy segmentation and height estimation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record.The vast size of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) plantations has led to lightweight unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) being identified as cost effective tools to generate inventories for improved plantation management, with proximal aerial data capable of resolving single palm canopies at potentially, centimetric resolution. If acquired with sufficient overlap, aerial data from UAVs can be processed within structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry workflows to yield volumetric point cloud representations of the scene. Point cloud-derived structural information on individual palms can benefit not only plantation management but is also of great environmental research interest, given the potential to deliver spatially contiguous quantifications of aboveground biomass, from which carbon can be accounted. Using lightweight UAVs we captured data over plantation plots of varying ages (2, 7 and 10 years) at peat soil sites in Sarawak, Malaysia, and we explored the impact of changing spatial resolution and image overlap on spatially variable uncertainties in SfM derived point clouds for the ten year old plot. Point cloud precisions were found to be in the decimetre range (mean of 26.7 31 cm) for a 10 year old plantation plot surveyed at 100 m flight altitude and >75% image overlap. Derived canopy height models were used and evaluated for automated palm identification using local height maxima. Metrics such as maximum canopy height and stem height, derived from segmented single palm point clouds were tested relative to ground validation data. Local maximum identification performed best for palms which were taller than surrounding undergrowth but whose fronds did not overlap significantly (98.2% mapping accuracy for 7 year old plot of 776 palms). Stem heights could be predicted from point cloud derived metrics with root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 0.27 m (R2= 0.63) for 7 year old and 0.45 m (R2=0.69) for 10 year old palms. It was also found that an acquisition designed to yield the minimal required overlap between images (60%) performed almost as well as higher overlap acquisitions (>75%) for palm identification and basic height metrics which is promising for operational implementations seeking to maximise spatial coverage and minimise processing costs. We conclude that UAV-based SfM can provide reliable data not only for oil palm inventory generation but allows the retrieval of basic structural parameters which may enable per-palm above-ground biomass estimations.European CommissionMarie Skłodowska-Curi

Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: All data used in this manuscript are fully open access and available. The soil data were obtained from a published snapshot derived from the World Soil Information database (https://doi.org/10.17027/isric-wdcsoils.20160003), the long-term climate data are available in the WorldClim version 2.0 database (http://worldclim.org), while the MODIS primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and landcover data are available in the MOD17A3 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD17A3.006), MOD16A2 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD16A2.006) and MCD12Q1 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD12Q1.006) databases respectively. The UKESM data from the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) is available in the public data archive (https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cmip6/data/CMIP6/CMIP/MOHC/UKESM1-0-LL).Physical and chemical stabilisation mechanisms are now known to play a critical role in controlling carbon (C) storage in mineral soils, leading to suggestions that climate warming-induced C losses may be lower than previously predicted. By analysing > 9,000 soil profiles, here we show that, overall, C storage declines strongly with mean annual temperature. However, the reduction in C storage with temperature was more than three times greater in coarse-textured soils, with limited capacities for stabilising organic matter, than in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities. This pattern was observed independently in cool and warm regions, and after accounting for potentially confounding factors (plant productivity, precipitation, aridity, cation exchange capacity, and pH). The results could not, however, be represented by an established Earth system model (ESM). We conclude that warming will promote substantial soil C losses, but ESMs may not be predicting these losses accurately or which stocks are most vulnerable.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Swedish Research CouncilEuropean Union Horizon 202

Intellectual, narcissistic, or Machiavellian? How Twitter users differ from Facebook-only users, why they use Twitter, and what they tweet about

Twitter is one of the world’s most popular social networking sites, yet gaps remain in our knowledge about the psychology of its users. The current studies sought to fill these gaps by examining whether the Big Five and Dark Triad personality traits predicted differences between Twitter users and Facebook-only users, motives for using Twitter, the frequency of tweeting about four topics – intellectual pursuits, personal achievements, diet/exercise, and social activities – and how much they liked to read tweets about these topics. Study 1 found that Twitter users (N = 346) were higher in openness (i.e., intellect, creativity) than were Facebook-only users (N = 268). In Study 2, a preregistered replication, Twitter users (N = 255) were not only higher in openness than Facebook-only users (N = 248), but they were also more Machiavellian. In both studies, Twitter users who were higher in openness were more strongly motivated to use Twitter for career promotion, and in turn, they tweeted more frequently and most liked to read tweets about intellectual pursuits. Narcissists were more strongly motivated to use Twitter for career promotion, social connection, and attention-seeking, and in turn, they tweeted more frequently and most liked to read tweets about personal achievements and diet/exercise. On average, participants most liked to read tweets about intellectual pursuits and least liked tweets about diet/exercise. We discuss the implications of these findings for tailoring one’s tweets to retain followers and for drawing the boundary conditions when extrapolating from Twitter-based “big data” to larger populations

Quantifying landscape-level methane fluxes in subarctic Finland using a multiscale approach

Journal ArticleQuantifying landscape-scale methane (CH4) fluxes from boreal and arctic regions, and determining how they are controlled, is critical for predicting the magnitude of any CH4 emission feedback to climate change. Furthermore, there remains uncertainty regarding the relative importance of small areas of strong methanogenic activity, vs. larger areas with net CH4 uptake, in controlling landscape-level fluxes. We measured CH4 fluxes from multiple microtopographical subunits (sedge-dominated lawns, interhummocks and hummocks) within an aapa mire in subarctic Finland, as well as in drier ecosystems present in the wider landscape, lichen heath and mountain birch forest. An intercomparison was carried out between fluxes measured using static chambers, up-scaled using a high-resolution landcover map derived from aerial photography and eddy covariance. Strong agreement was observed between the two methodologies, with emission rates greatest in lawns. CH4 fluxes from lawns were strongly related to seasonal fluctuations in temperature, but their floating nature meant that water-table depth was not a key factor in controlling CH4 release. In contrast, chamber measurements identified net CH4 uptake in birch forest soils. An intercomparison between the aerial photography and satellite remote sensing demonstrated that quantifying the distribution of the key CH4 emitting and consuming plant communities was possible from satellite, allowing fluxes to be scaled up to a 100 km2 area. For the full growing season (May to October), ~ 1.1-1.4 g CH4 m-2 was released across the 100 km2 area. This was based on up-scaled lawn emissions of 1.2-1.5 g CH4 m-2, vs. an up-scaled uptake of 0.07-0.15 g CH4 m-2 by the wider landscape. Given the strong temperature sensitivity of the dominant lawn fluxes, and the fact that lawns are unlikely to dry out, climate warming may substantially increase CH4 emissions in northern Finland, and in aapa mire regions in general.This work was carried out within the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded Arctic Biosphere Atmosphere Coupling at Multiple Scales (ABACUS) project (a contribution to International Polar Year 2007_2008) plus NERC small grant NE/F010222/1 awarded to RB and BH. We are grateful for the support of the staff at the Kevo Subarctic Research Institute, to David Sayer for operation and maintenance of the eddy covariance apparatus, and to Lorna English for helping with the analysis of the CH4 samples. We also thank the NERC Field Spectroscopy Facility for support in ground data collection for the remote sensing analysis. Finally, we wish to express our gratitude to two anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions substantially improved the manuscript

Morphological evidence for geologically young thaw of ice on Mars: a review of recent studies using high-resolution imaging data

Liquid water is generally only meta-stable on Mars today; it quickly freezes, evaporates or boils in the cold, dry, thin atmosphere (surface pressure is about 200 times lower than on Earth). Nevertheless, there is morphological evidence that surface water was extensive in more ancient times, including the Noachian Epoch (~4.1 Ga to ~3.7 Ga bp), when large lakes existed and river-like channel networks were incised, and early in the Hesperian Epoch (~3.7 Ga to ~2.9 Ga bp), when megafloods carved enormous channels and smaller fluvial networks developed in association with crater-lakes. However, by the Amazonian Epoch (~3.0 Ga to present), most surface morphogenesis associated with liquid water had ceased, with long periods of water sequestration as ice in the near-surface and polar regions. However, inferences from observations using imaging data with sub-metre pixel sizes indicate that periglacial landscapes, involving morphogenesis associated with ground-ice and/or surface-ice thaw and liquid flows, has been active within the last few million years. In this paper, three such landform assemblages are described: a high-latitude assemblage comprising features interpreted to be sorted clastic stripes, circles and polygons, non-sorted polygonally patterned ground, fluvial gullies, and solifluction lobes; a mid-latitude assemblage comprising gullies, patterned ground, debris-covered glaciers and hillslope stripes; and an equatorial assemblage of linked basins, patterned ground, possible pingos, and channel-and-scarp features interpreted to be retrogressive thaw-slumps. Hypotheses to explain these observations are explored, including recent climate change, and hydrated minerals in the regolith ‘thawing’ to form liquid brines at very low temperatures. The use of terrestrial analogue field sites is also discussed

Transpiration from subarctic deciduous woodlands: environmental controls and contribution to ecosystem evapotranspiration

Potential land‐climate feedbacks in subarctic regions, where rapid warming is driving forest expansion into the tundra, may be mediated by differences in transpiration of different plant functional types. Here we assess the environmental controls of overstorey transpiration and its relevance for ecosystem evapotranspiration in subarctic deciduous woodlands. We measured overstorey transpiration of mountain birch canopies and ecosystem evapotranspiration in two locations in northern Fennoscandia, having dense (Abisko) and sparse (Kevo) overstories. For Kevo, we also upscale chamber‐measured understorey evapotranspiration from shrubs and lichen using a detailed land cover map. Sub‐daily evaporative fluxes were not affected by soil moisture, and showed similar controls by vapour pressure deficit and radiation across sites. At the daily timescale, increases in evaporative demand led to proportionally higher contributions of overstorey transpiration to ecosystem evapotranspiration. For the entire growing season, the overstorey transpired 33% of ecosystem evapotranspiration in Abisko and only 16% in Kevo. At this latter site, the understorey had a higher leaf area index and contributed more to ecosystem evapotranspiration compared to the overstorey birch canopy. In Abisko, growing season evapotranspiration was 27% higher than precipitation, consistent with a gradual soil moisture depletion over the summer. Our results show that overstorey canopy transpiration in subarctic deciduous woodlands is not the dominant evaporative flux. However, given the observed environmental sensitivity of evapotranspiration components, the role of deciduous trees in driving ecosystem evapotranspiration may increase with the predicted increases in tree cover and evaporative demand across subarctic regions

The Challenge Non-Typhoidal Salmonella (CHANTS) Consortium: Development of a non-typhoidal Salmonella controlled human infection model: Report from a consultation group workshop, 05 July 2022, London, UK [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease (iNTS) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, particularly as a cause of bloodstream infection in children and immunocompromised adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines to prevent non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) would represent a valuable public health tool in this setting to avert cases and prevent expansion of antimicrobial resistance. Several NTS and combination typhoidal-NTS vaccine candidates are in early-stage development, although the pathway to licensure is unclear due to challenges in conducting large phase III field trials. Controlled human infection models (CHIM) present an opportunity to accelerate vaccine development for a range of enteric pathogens. Several recent typhoidal Salmonella CHIMs have been conducted safely and have played pivotal roles in progressing vaccine candidates to pre-qualification and licensure. The Challenge Non-Typhoidal Salmonella (CHANTS) consortium has been formed with funding from the Wellcome Trust, to deliver the first NTS CHIM, which can act as a platform for future vaccine evaluation. This paper reports the conclusions of a consultation group workshop convened with key stakeholders. The aims of this meeting were to: (1) define the rationale for an NTS CHIM (2) map the NTS vaccine pipeline (3) refine study design and (4) establish potential future use cases

High Energy Neutrino Astronomy: Towards Kilometer-Scale Detectors

Of all high-energy particles, only neutrinos can directly convey astronomical information from the edge of the universe---and from deep inside the most cataclysmic high-energy processes. Copiously produced in high-energy collisions, travelling at the velocity of light, and not deflected by magnetic fields, neutrinos meet the basic requirements for astronomy. Their unique advantage arises from a fundamental property: they are affected only by the weakest of nature's forces (but for gravity) and are therefore essentially unabsorbed as they travel cosmological distances between their origin and us. Many of the outstanding mysteries of astrophysics may be hidden from our sight at all wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum because of absorption by matter and radiation between us and the source. For example, the hot dense regions that form the central engines of stars and galaxies are opaque to photons. In other cases, such as supernova remnants, gamma ray bursters, and active galaxies, all of which may involve compact objects or black holes at their cores, the precise origin of the high-energy photons emerging from their surface regions is uncertain. Therefore, data obtained through a variety of observational windows---and especially through direct observations with neutrinos---may be of cardinal importance. In this talk, the scientific goals of high energy neutrino astronomy and the technical aspects of water and ice Cherenkov detectors are examined, and future experimental possibilities, including a kilometer-square deep ice neutrino telescope, are explored.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, 6 postscript figures, uses aipproc.sty and epsf.sty. Talk presented at the International Symposium on High Energy Gamma Ray Astronomy, Heidelberg, June 200

The impact of CHIP premium increases on insurance outcomes among CHIP eligible children

Background: Within the United States, public insurance premiums are used both to discourage private health policy holders from dropping coverage and to reduce state budget costs. Prior research suggests that the odds of having private coverage and being uninsured increase with increases in public insurance premiums. The aim of this paper is to test effects of Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) premium increases on public insurance, private insurance, and uninsurance rates. Methods: The fact that families just below and above a state-specific income cut-off are likely very similar in terms of observable and unobservable characteristics except the premium contribution provides a natural experiment for estimating the effect of premium increases. Using 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) merged with CHIP premiums, we compare health insurance outcomes for CHIP eligible children as of January 2003 in states with a two-tier premium structure using a cross-sectional regression discontinuity methodology. We use difference-in-differences analysis to compare longitudinal insurance outcomes by December 2003. Results: Higher CHIP premiums are associated with higher likelihood of private insurance. Disenrollment from CHIP in response to premium increases over time does not increase the uninsurance rate. Conclusions: When faced with higher CHIP premiums, private health insurance may be a preferable alternative for CHIP eligible families with higher incomes. Therefore, competition in the insurance exchanges being formed under the Affordable Care Act could enhance choice